Markets in freefall: Low volumes, FII pullouts ship indices crashing on Monday

On a day when buying and selling volumes have been low, the Indian markets continued their downward spiral for the fifth straight session on Monday. Benchmark indices slid greater than 1% every to their respective eight-month lows, wiping out a staggering ₹4,34,579 crore in investor wealth in a day.

Whole turnover on NSE—at ₹71,947.32 crore—was its lowest in almost 4 months. Specialists say in such conditions, it takes much less effort to maneuver the market, making value swings extra exaggerated.

On the similar time, international traders additionally continued to tug out monies. On Monday, international institutional traders (FIIs) offloaded a internet ₹6,286.70 crore, whereas home institutional traders (DIIs) stepped in with internet purchases of ₹5,185.66 crore.

Benchmark Nifty50 ended the day at 22,553.35, down 1.06%, whereas the BSE Sensex settled 1.1% decrease at 74,454.41. In the meantime, the broader market additionally declined—Nifty Midcap 100 fell 0.9% and Nifty Smallcap 250 dropped 1.2%.

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In the meantime, over the previous three months, the Nifty50 has been the second-worst performer amongst rising markets, slipping 5.6%. The one index to fare worse is Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite, which has declined 6.2%, based on Bloomberg knowledge.

The challenges

The market downturn has created a major hole from file highs throughout indices. The Nifty Smallcap 250 is trailing 22% under its all-time peak, whereas the Nifty Midcap is lagging by 18%. In the meantime, the headline indices aren’t spared both—Nifty50 is down 14% and the Sensex has slipped 13% from their respective historic highs.

Specialists warned of stretched valuations, poor company earnings because of subdued demand, and different challenges for the market as traders search for succour.

Nuvama analysts wrote in a method report on 17 February that hereon, demand can be essential for earnings. Nonetheless, demand outlook is uninteresting as international restoration is unsure, family incomes are weak, credit score is slowing, and company capex is subdued, whereas fiscal and financial insurance policies haven’t but turned accommodative, they stated.

“Decelerating earnings amid still-high valuations (regardless of correction) warrant warning,” the report learn. The brokerage prefers massive caps over small and midcaps, and has maintained a defensive bias, with personal banks being the one key cyclical obese.

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Saurabh Mukherjea, founder and chief funding officer of Marcellus Funding Managers, famous that whereas massive caps are nonetheless comparatively cheaper than small and midcaps, valuations throughout the board seem stretched. Given the slowdown in company earnings and discretionary spending, he believes the market is wanting a bit expensive.

To make sure, the Nifty 50 is at the moment buying and selling at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21.06, properly under its five-year common of 23.91, based on Bloomberg knowledge. The Sensex can also be trailing its historic valuation, with a present PE ratio of twenty-two.07 in comparison with its five-year common of 25.34.

ICICI Securities in a report dated 22 February indicated that Nifty P/E might rise on the again of Zomato and Jio Monetary Companies changing Bharat Petroleum Company Ltd. (BPCL) and FMCG main Britannia Industries within the Nifty50 on 28 March 2025, as a part of the NSE’s semi-annual index reshuffle.

BPCL and Britannia, with trailing P/E of eight occasions and round 57 occasions, respectively, might be changed by Zomato and Jio Financials with trailing P/E of about 320 occasions and roughly 96 occasions, respectively, as per ICICI Securities’ report. “This might inflate NIFTY50 P/E by 2.5% on a trailing foundation from 22.1x to 22.6x,” the report stated.

Based on Sumit Jain, deputy chief funding officer at ASK Funding Managers, key elements contributing to market uncertainty embrace international commerce instability and the sluggish restoration of India Inc.’s revenue progress.

He acknowledges that Indian equities could face some near-term bumps however stays bullish on the long-term outlook. In contrast to different markets, he believes India has the potential to maintain progress over an prolonged interval.

Wanting forward

Nitin Raheja, government director at Julius Baer India, believes {that a} rebound in company earnings would be the key to restoring investor confidence and reversing the present downtrend. Raheja additionally believes large-cap shares supply a safer funding guess now, as mid- and small-cap firms could face additional challenges forward.

At a time when the headline indices have taken successful, the broader market didn’t see a comparatively steeper fall immediately, famous Anirudh Garg, companion and fund supervisor at Invasset PMS. This, he believes, is “an indication that traders are already dipping their toes again into small and midcap shares”.

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In the meantime, Neelesh Surana, CIO, Mirae Asset Funding Managers (India) stated, “We anticipate GDP progress, earnings, and markets to stabilize over the following few quarters, as vital actions have been taken on each the fiscal and financial fronts”. He feels GDP normalization might be pushed by increased execution of presidency capex, higher agri-output, and stability in consumption pushed by tax minimize in addition to ongoing reductions in rates of interest.

Some stability in earnings together with affordable valuations, might assist arrest FII promoting, which has been primarily pushed by the altering macros within the US as a result of new regime.

Jain of ASK likes sectors associated to discretionary spending and manufacturing as he sees robust alternatives in these industries.