Secure-haven greenback good points amid tense Russia-Ukraine talks; Aussie flat after charge minimize

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Greta Rosen Fondahn

NEW YORK/GDANSK -The U.S. greenback superior in opposition to main currencies on Tuesday, with losses led by the euro, garnering safe-haven bids amid tariff considerations and peace negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine battle which are fraught with rigidity and miscommunication.

The Australian greenback, in the meantime, initially held close to two-month highs after the Reserve Financial institution of Australia minimize charges however cautioned on additional easing. However the swell of broad greenback shopping for amid international geopolitical stress has quickly eroded help for the Australian forex.

Merchants have been maintaining a tally of the Riyadh talks involving U.S. and Russian officers on Tuesday aimed toward ending the Ukraine struggle. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated no peace deal could possibly be made behind his nation’s again. He postponed his go to to Saudi Arabia deliberate for Wednesday till March 10.

“Final week, there was quite a lot of optimism concerning the prospect that the U.S. would reveal some…contours round a peace deal in Russia and Ukraine,” stated Thierry Wizman, international charges and FX strategist, at Macquarie in New York. “That hasn’t occurred. And it has been principally the euro which has taken the beating.”

In midmorning buying and selling, the euro fell 0.3% to $1.0453, retreating for a second straight session. Final week, the euro rose to a two-week excessive on hopes of a peace deal.

Russia has hardened its calls for for a peace deal, demanding that NATO go additional by disavowing a promise it made at a summit in Bucharest in 2008 that Ukraine would be a part of at a future, unspecified date.

U.S. President Donald Trump, in the meantime has threatened new tariffs on the European Union resulting from commerce surpluses it had with the USA, in a widening offensive that economists say may set off a worldwide financial slowdown.

In opposition to the yen, the greenback edged 0.1% increased to 151.665. It pared good points after knowledge confirmed U.S. homebuilder sentiment tumbled to a five-month low in February on worries that tariffs on imports would mix with increased mortgage charges to additional drive up housing prices.

The Nationwide Affiliation of Residence Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index plunged 5 factors to 42 this month, the bottom studying since September.

The yen has been on the again foot after its current good points as sturdy development knowledge bolstered odds of the Financial institution of Japan elevating rates of interest once more this yr, with July seen as a reside assembly.

Japan’s stable October-December GDP knowledge on Monday, coupled with current inflation numbers, have helped raise the yen. It’s up 3.5% in opposition to the greenback thus far in 2025.

Sterling eased 0.1% to $1.2615, damage by a powerful greenback regardless of knowledge exhibiting accelerating British wage development. [GBP/]

Buyers can even be centered on Wednesday’s launch of minutes of the Federal Reserve’s assembly in January which will present how policymakers have accounted for the danger of a broader tariff struggle ensuing from President Donald Trump’s commerce insurance policies.

Knowledge final week confirmed U.S. shopper costs elevated on the quickest tempo in practically 18 months in January, reinforcing the Fed’s message that it was in no rush to renew chopping charges amid rising financial worries.

U.S. charge futures have priced in about 39 foundation factors of easing in 2025, in contrast with 41 bps late Friday, in accordance with LSEG estimates, utilizing the January 2026 futures contract. Futures additionally implied that the Fed will seemingly resume chopping charges once more both on the September or October coverage assembly.

The greenback index, which measures its efficiency in opposition to six different main currencies, was 0.2% increased at 106.92, however nonetheless not removed from the two-month low of 106.56 it touched on Friday. 

In Australia, the RBA minimize its money charge by 25 bps to 4.10% on Tuesday in its first easing because the 2020 pandemic and stated it was cautious about prospects of additional coverage easing.

That left the Australian greenback flat at US$0.6354 after an preliminary burst of choppiness following the choice. The Aussie touched a two-month excessive of US$0.6374 on Monday and was up 2.4% in February. [AUD/]

Swaps indicate only a 20% chance for a follow-up minimize in April, though a transfer in Might remains to be virtually absolutely priced in.

Descripti RIC Final U.S. Pct YTD Pct Excessive Low

Greenback 106.88 106.72 0.17% -1.48% 107.07 106.

Euro/Doll 1.0459 1.0484 -0.23% 1.03% $1.0487 $1.0

Greenback/Ye 151.53 151.445 0.14% -3.62% 152.205 151.

Euro/Yen 158.49​ 158.82 -0.21% -2.9% 159.19 158.

Greenback/Sw 0.9014 0.9008 0.09% -0.65% 0.9035 0.89

Sterling/ 1.2615 1.2626 -0.06% 0.9% $1.2627 $1.2

Greenback/Ca 1.4187 1.4182 0.05% -1.33% 1.4213 1.41

Aussie/Do 0.6354 0.6357 -0.02% 2.71% $0.6367 $0.6

Euro/Swis 0.9426 0.9442 -0.17% 0.35% 0.9446 0.94

Euro/Ster 0.829 0.8303 -0.16% 0.21% 0.8309 0.82

NZ 0.5704 0.5738 -0.57% 1.96% $0.5736 0.56

Greenback/No 11.1449​ 11.1012 0.39% -1.94% 11.1628 11.1

Euro/Norw 11.6529 11.639 0.12% -0.99% 11.666 11.6

Greenback/Sw 10.7069 10.6949 0.11% -2.82% 10.734 10.6

Euro/Swed 11.199 11.2127 -0.12% -2.34% 11.2205 11.1

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